2025 Cost Support Remains Strong; ABS Market Stays Firm Before Chinese New Year

Despite the gradually fading market sentiment as the holiday approaches and a noticeable reduction in trading activity, the ABS market in the plastic city has shown resilience, not succumbing to the typical weakness associated with the festive mood. Instead, it demonstrates a compelling ability to stand strong amidst adversity. What accounts for this? The answer lies in the impressive performance of the three primary components, which, in addition to a significant rise in crude oil prices boosting market sentiment, also possess other underlying factors.

Entering 2025, the price of butadiene has seen a notable increase due to constrained supplies from incoming shipments, as reflected in monitoring data from Zhongsu Online. Butadiene has risen from 10,900 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 12,200 yuan/ton currently, marking an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton, or nearly 12%. However, it's essential to note that the rapid price surge of butadiene has adversely affected downstream profits, leading to decreased operational willingness among factories, which are lowering their acceptance of high-priced butadiene. This situation has resulted in a lackluster trading environment for butadiene, leading to a fluctuating market.

Looking at acrylonitrile, it has also experienced significant upward movement due to a tighter supply dynamic coupled with growing downstream demand and low industry inventory levels. Data shows acrylonitrile prices have surged from 9,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 11,100 yuan/ton now, reflecting an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton, or over 15%, demonstrating substantial growth.

Finally, regarding styrene, after a period of decline and adjustment earlier in January, some necessary demand and short-covering have provided support at the bottom. Additionally, production cuts from some styrene facilities and positive export news have bolstered market sentiment. Monitoring data indicates that styrene has risen from 8,455 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 8,600 yuan/ton now, an increase of 145 yuan/ton or over 1.7%. However, the upward momentum of styrene is limited due to weakening support from benzene.

In contrast to the robust performance of these three components, the ABS spot market appears lackluster, primarily maintaining stability rather than engaging in significant speculative price increases. This is mainly attributed to petrochemical manufacturers holding steady on their price quotes and showing little eagerness to raise prices. Although theoretical profits remain low, even in the negative range, the impending holiday has caused many downstream factories to cease operations, resulting in petrochemical manufacturers having largely completed pre-sales. Their operational strategy is primarily focused on adjustments post-holiday. In conclusion, the ABS market is expected to continue its stable performance leading up to the holiday, with further attention needed on news developments afterward.


Disclaimer: This is an original article from China Plastics Online, please indicate the source at the beginning of the article if reproduced.
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