In the first half of 2025, the overall price focus of the domestic PVC market is expected to remain weak. The reasons for this are mainly twofold. On the one hand, there has been a notable increase in the supply of PVC due to the addition of new production capacity, which further intensifies the pressure on the supply side. On the other hand, downstream demand is lukewarm. With the decline in new construction data in the real estate sector, effective domestic demand has dropped year-on-year, placing pressure on spot market prices that continue to fluctuate downward.
In the first half of 2025, domestic PVC exports grew by over 50% year-on-year, which favorably absorbed the increased production and helped reduce domestic PVC industry inventory by nearly 20% compared to last year, temporarily supporting the bottom price level of the PVC spot market. As the traditional demand peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the continued pressure from increased supply will remain a core factor inhibiting price rebounds.
Supply Side: Continuous Growth in Capacity and Operating Rates
According to the latest data, about 2.2 million tons of new capacity is planned for 2025, with over 70% coming from ethylene-based processes. Among this, 1.4 million tons is expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000-ton capacity started production in August, and Tianjin Bohua's 400,000-ton plant is expected to commence production at the end of August or early September. Additionally, Gulf Chemical's 200,000-ton plant and Yaowang's non-mercury process 300,000-ton facility still have trial production plans scheduled for August and September, bringing the total production capacity to 27.94 million tons. In a low-profit environment, the operating rate may maintain around 75%-77%, though it remains challenging for marginal producers to increase capacity. However, the expansion of the capacity base will exacerbate supply excess.
Demand Side: Weak Domestic Demand, Weaker Export Support
On the demand side, the real estate sector has been a drag, with the demand for pipes, profiles, and other construction-related products accounting for over 60% of the PVC market. From January to July 2025, the area of new residential construction fell by 23.2%, totaling 43.733 million square meters. While there may be moderate growth in demand from municipal pipe networks and water conservancy projects, it will have a limited impact on the PVC market, and short-term policy stimulus is unlikely to change the downward trend in PVC demand significantly.
In terms of exports, from January to June 2025, cumulative exports reached 1.9605 million tons. Monthly exports saw a 27.61% decrease compared to the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 21.03%, with an accumulated year-on-year increase of 50.26%. India is the largest export market for China, accounting for over 45%. On August 14, 2025, India announced its latest anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from China. Compared to other countries and regions, China's situation is more significant than previously expected, potentially restricting domestic PVC exports. Following the announcement of the anti-dumping duties, India’s Ministry of Commerce is expected to release and announce the implementation timeline within a month. Once the policy is enacted, a noticeable change in the supply structure of PVC entering the Indian market is anticipated in the fourth quarter.
Overall, the short-term fundamentals of the PVC market continue to show weakness, with supply growth and lukewarm demand, leading to sustained inventory accumulation in the industry, declining macroeconomic expectations, and decreased policy enthusiasm. In the medium to long term, attention should be focused on macroeconomic policy support and expectations for the demand peak season in the second half of the year, commonly referred to as the "Golden September and Silver October."
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CPC Index, fully known as China Plastic City Raw Material Price Index, is an important tool to reflect the price trend of plastic raw materials in China Plastic City. The launch of this index aims to provide a reliable reference basis for the majority of plastics industry enterprises to help them better grasp market trends and formulate business strategies.
As the "Industrial Information Operation Situation Index Enterprise" designated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, our company is well aware of the industry's urgent need for accurate and timely plastic price information. Therefore, we officially launched the plastic index in June 2011, providing a professional and authoritative price reference for the majority of plastic enterprises.
The average price is an average price obtained through scientific calculation by our platform according to the price of various plastic products in the whole Chinese market. This average price not only reflects the reference price level of the market as a whole, but also is calculated based on the specific price situation of each sub-brand. In short, the average price is a comprehensive indicator, which reflects the average price level of various plastic products in the Chinese market during a certain period.
By viewing the average price of the market, you can understand the average price trend of various plastic products in a specific period. This helps you to better understand the market dynamics, supply and demand of various products and market competition.
The market reference price refers to the accurate and timely quotation provided by several large traders or agents of a certain brand in China Plastics City. We take the reference price of the brand in Yuyao area on the same day according to the price provided by them. The firm that provides the price is listed as the index gathering firm.
Through the market reference price, you can understand the average price level of the current market, so as to better formulate purchasing, sales and other business strategies. At the same time, the market reference price is also an important basis for users to analyze and forecast the market, helping them grasp the market trend and find business opportunities.
The reference price rise and fall list is a tool to rank the price rise and fall of various categories of plastic products under the market reference price. It tracks and compares the price changes of products under various categories of symbols in different time periods such as week, month and year, and then selects the top 20 with the highest price increase or the top 20 with the highest price decrease to form the price rise list and price fall list respectively.
The reference price rise and fall list provides a practical reference for practitioners in the plastics industry, helping you quickly capture the most volatile products in the market, and providing strong data support for your decision.
