Shock! PVC imports and exports both decline, hitting the lowest level of the year
The first rising then declining “ trend of the PVC market in 2026 fully materialized in July, with both import and export trade weakening simultaneously. Import and export figures both dropped sharply, hitting their lowest monthly levels so far this year. The earlier pattern-strong exports in the first quarter and continuous contraction in imports-has been completely reversed. A combination of weak overseas demand during the off-season, rising domestic self-sufficiently rates,and volatile global trade conditions has brought about a turning point in the PVC industry’s import-export dynamics, sending clear signals regarding supply and demand trends for the second half of the year.
Export volumes sharply declined due to the overseas off-season and weak demand.
According to custom data, PVC exports in July this year amounted to only 216,200 tons, a sharp 28.5% decline from June’s 302,500 tons, plunging to the lowest monthly export level of the year and nearly having compared to March’ s annual peak of 684,000 tons. The primary reason lies in overseas mainstream markets entering their traditional off-season, with regional demand weakening significantly. As widely known, PVC exports are highly dependent on south Asia and Southeast Asia, with India, Vietnam, and Indonesia-the three core markets-accounting for over 50% of total exports. This high market concentration makes export Trends extremely vulnerable to regional dynamics. India, the largest export destination, has seen a steep drop in demand, importing just 34,500 tons of PVC from China in July, down 88.2% from the peak of 293,000 tons in march, and experiencing consecutive months of decline. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia entered its rainy season in July, causing construction activities in infrastructure, pipes, and profiles to halt, leading to reduced imports in Vietnam and Indonesia and a rapid fade in regional export advantages. At the same time, fluctuating export prices have eroded product competitiveness, further suppressing overseas orders. After reaching an annual high of $848 per ton in April 2026, the average export price continued to decline, dropping to $698 per ton in July. Amid volatile pricing, overseas buyers have adopted a cautious stance, showing low willingness to commit to long-term contracts and limiting purchases to short-term essential needs, directly resulting in a significant contraction in monthly export volumes.
Domestic capacity is sufficient, and with import substitution taking effect, PVC imports continue to hit bottom.
Compared to the temporary decline in exports, the weak performance of PVC imports has been the core trend throughout 2026, with July's new low merely reflecting the continuation of the industry's long-term structural shift. In recent years, China's domestic PVC industry has continuously optimized its capacity structure, with new capacity additions shrinking and supply rhythms stabilizing. Meanwhile, both calcium carbide-based and ethylene-based production technologies have matured, leading to steady improvements in product quality that fully meet domestic downstream demand. Under these conditions, China's PVC self-sufficiency rate has steadily increased, and the arbitrage window for imports has remained closed over the long term. On one hand, domestic spot prices have consistently remained below international market levels, leaving no profit margin for overseas suppliers entering the Chinese market, effectively halting general trade imports. On the other hand, downstream processing enterprises increasingly prefer domestically produced supplies offering better cost-performance ratios, with only minimal import volumes maintained through processing trade to meet essential needs. Driven by multiple factors, PVC import volumes have continued to fall sharply year-on-year since 2026, with cumulative imports from January to June down nearly 40% compared to the same period last year. The downward trend continued into July, setting a new annual low, firmly solidifying the trajectory toward import substitution.
In summary, the low levels of PVC imports and exports in July were not coincidental, but rather a reflection of overseas off-season demand, relaxed domestic supply-demand conditions, and weak global trade. In the short term, overseas market demand is unlikely to recover quickly in August and September, as the monsoon seasons in South Asia and Southeast Asia continue to impact activity. Exports are expected to to remain at low levels, while imports will likely maintain their downward trend, supported by ample domestic production capacity, with little chance of a significant rebound.
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